XRP’s Future Awaiting Key SEC Decision
The long-running legal battle between the SEC and Ripple Labs has entered a new phase of quiet, leaving the crypto market on edge. This silence has prompted a fresh round of conjecture, but according to veteran securities lawyers, it can be attributed to a straightforward procedural explanation: the Commission has not yet completed the internal vote required to abandon its own appeal. This administrative step is the final hurdle preventing the long-running legal battle from reaching its definitive conclusion.
While Ripple took the proactive step of withdrawing its cross-appeal in June 2025 and placing the agreed-upon $125 million civil penalty in escrow, the SEC’s appeal technically remains alive. This leaves Judge Analisa Torres’s partial victory for Ripple non-final and keeps an injunction in place. The current hush is therefore not a sign of stagnation but rather a precursor to a potentially significant resolution that could redefine XRP’s legal status and market prospects.
A Shifting Regulatory Landscape
The SEC’s approach to crypto has undergone a significant transformation under the new leadership of Chair Paul Atkins, who was elevated to the position by President Donald Trump. This change has ushered in a new, more structured approach to regulation, a clear departure from the previous “regulation-by-enforcement” strategy. Chair Atkins has been vocal about this new direction, publicly unveiling “Project Crypto,” a commission-wide rulemaking agenda.
He stated, “We will make sure the next chapter of financial innovation is written right here in America,” signalling a desire for a more favourable regulatory environment. This broader détente has fueled widespread hopes that the Commission will ultimately vote to drop the XRP lawsuit. Such a decision would bring a definitive end to a contentious legal battle and, crucially, cement Judge Torres’s ruling regarding retail-market XRP sales as binding precedent, providing much-needed clarity for the entire crypto industry.
The August 15 Deadline Explained
The upcoming August 15 deadline is a significant procedural checkpoint in the XRP lawsuit, but it is not a hard cutoff for abandoning the appeal. Instead, it merely obliges each party to file a joint status report with the Second Circuit, declaring whether further briefing is necessary. This means that if the SEC remains divided internally or if the staff review process drags on, the agency retains the option to seek another sixty-day extension.
However, insiders suggest there is little appetite within the Commission for prolonging a fight that the new chair has publicly framed as regulatory overreach. Should the Commission vote in the coming days to dismiss its appeal, dismissal notices would be filed almost immediately. This would have profound implications, effectively lifting the injunction against Ripple, releasing the $125 million civil penalty to the US Treasury, and ending the one remaining appeal that prevents XRP’s legal status from crystallising.
Ripple’s CLO Pushes for Legislative Clarity
Adding a political dimension to the case is Ripple’s Chief Legal Officer, Stuart Alderoty, who is actively lobbying for clearer digital asset legislation on Capitol Hill. In a letter addressed to Tim Scott, Chairman of the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, Alderoty criticised the current draft of the Digital Asset Market Structure and Investor Protection Act. He expressed concerns about “regulatory overreach,” stating that the current definition of an “ancillary asset” risks placing future transactions of a token under SEC jurisdiction indefinitely, without an objective statutory endpoint.
Alderoty also warned against relying on agency discretion, noting that shifts in administration can bring shifts in enforcement priorities, and there is “no assurance that different SEC leadership will faithfully apply the law or exercise discretion in a consistent or principled manner.” This advocacy highlights a key motivation for Ripple to end the lawsuit and push for clear, statutory regulation rather than relying on agency-by-agency decisions.
What Happens Next for XRP Price
The outcome of the SEC’s internal vote holds the key to XRP’s near-term price trajectory. The market is facing two distinct scenarios. A vote in favour of withdrawing the appeal could be a much-needed catalyst for the next breakout. This withdrawal would mean the Programmatic Sales ruling stands, affirming XRP as a non-security in secondary sales. An end to the case could clear the way for the SEC to consider pending XRP-spot ETF applications, which, if approved, may fuel institutional demand and trigger a price breakout.
Conversely, a vote in favour of pursuing the appeal would be a shock event, likely triggering a sharp sell-off. XRP, which recently dropped to an August 3 low of $2.7254 before steadying, gained 1% on August 6, partially reversing a previous 3.58% slide. The next few weeks will likely see heightened volatility in the lead-up to the August 15 court filing deadline.
Bitcoin’s Steady Performance in Broader Market
While XRP grapples with regulatory uncertainty, the broader crypto market, led by Bitcoin, is showing signs of stability. Bitcoin (BTC) joined XRP in positive territory on August 6, with its price closing at $115,052. This was supported by a return of positive inflows into US BTC-spot ETFs. According to Farside Investors, key flows included net inflows of $26.4 million for Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB), $14.5 million for Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), and $14.2 million for Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) and VanEck Bitcoin ETF (HODL).
This positive sentiment was also boosted by better-than-expected US corporate earnings and reports of a major manufacturing investment by Apple Inc. (AAPL). This contrast highlights Bitcoin’s resilience and its appeal as a safe haven asset, even as other altcoins face legal and political headwinds.
XRP Recovery: Crucial Days Ahead with SEC Decision
The next few days will be crucial in determining whether XRP can mount an extended recovery. The SEC’s pending appeal vote, the August 15 court filing deadline, and ongoing legislative developments on Capitol Hill are the key catalysts to watch. Ripple’s progress on a US banking licence and any SWIFT-related updates will also influence sentiment.
Traders are monitoring key price levels, with a breakout above $3 paving the way towards the crucial $3.2 resistance level, while a break below the August 5 low of $2.9184 could bring the 50-day EMA into play. As legal and political risks evolve, the outcome of the SEC’s decision will largely dictate XRP’s immediate future and its ability to fully realise its potential in the U.S. market.
Read More: XRP Lawsuit Silence Signals Imminent Clarity and Growth
