Traders Bet on Short-Term Recovery
Bitcoin and Ethereum traders have grown more optimistic about near-term price movements despite continued market anxiety. Data from prediction platforms shows rapidly shifting probabilities in favor of short-term rebounds.
On Myriad, operated by Dastan, odds swung more than 20 percentage points toward a Bitcoin move to $84,000 before a potential correction. This shift coincided with Bitcoin rebounding from below $63,000 to nearly $69,000 earlier in the week.
Pump and Dump Probabilities Shift
Despite rising bullish bets, traders still assign meaningful probability to a drop toward $55,000 before any sustained rally. At the time of measurement, the probability of such a decline remained slightly above fifty percent.
For Ethereum, similar dynamics unfolded. After climbing from roughly $1,815 to above $2,100 in a rapid rebound, prediction odds moved toward a possible $3,000 test, though downside risks remain elevated.
Fear Index Signals Continued Anxiety
While traders reposition tactically, broader market sentiment remains fragile. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index continues to register in “Extreme Fear,” reflecting negative momentum and elevated volatility.
The index aggregates data from social sentiment, market momentum, and volatility indicators. It has remained suppressed for most of February as prices corrected sharply from recent highs.
Recommended Article: ETHZilla Abandons Ethereum Treasury Strategy After 96% Collapse
Divergence Between Sentiment and Positioning
This divergence highlights a key distinction between strategic sentiment and tactical positioning. Traders may anticipate short-term volatility opportunities without believing a full bull market has resumed.
Prediction markets often capture speculative flows rather than long-term conviction. As such, optimism in specific price targets does not necessarily imply confidence in sustained all-time highs.
Other Prediction Platforms Echo Shift
On Kalshi, odds of Bitcoin falling below $55,000 this year have declined by roughly 10 percentage points. Ethereum’s probability of dropping below $1,500 also eased modestly.
However, expectations for new all-time highs remain subdued. On Polymarket, probabilities of fresh record highs before the end of 2026 hover below twenty percent.
Analysts Warn of Further Pain
Some research firms maintain cautious outlooks despite the recent bounce. CryptoQuant analysts suggest a structural bottom could form near $55,000 for Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, Standard Chartered has projected potential downside toward $50,000 for Bitcoin and $1,400 for Ethereum before a more durable recovery begins. Such forecasts reinforce ongoing uncertainty.
Volatility Remains the Dominant Theme
Bitcoin and Ethereum remain significantly below their 2025 all-time highs, trading roughly 47 percent and 59 percent lower, respectively. These retracements underscore the scale of recent corrections.
For now, the market reflects a tug-of-war between tactical traders seeking rebounds and macro analysts warning of additional downside. Until fear metrics meaningfully recover, volatility is likely to remain the defining feature of crypto markets.
