Bitcoin Faces Resistance Near $112K
Bitcoin opened the second week of September coiling beneath $112,000, struggling to flip resistance into solid support. Traders are increasingly focused on whether BTC can hold its ground or face a deeper retracement. Liquidity maps highlight $106,700 as the next key downside target, with analysts pointing to Fibonacci retracements aligning with a worst-case scenario at $100,000.
Others warn of an even steeper capitulation. Based on cycle corrections, projections suggest BTC could correct 30% from its $124,000 peak, bottoming around $87,000 by late September or early October. This bearish setup has ignited fear of a sub-$90K test.
CPI Week Raises Pressure on the Fed
Macroeconomic forces also weigh heavily this week as the U.S. prepares for CPI and PPI data releases. Inflationary pressures remain elevated while labor market weakness is emerging, leaving the Federal Reserve in a tight spot. Markets are already fully pricing in a September rate cut, with some betting on a larger-than-expected reduction.
By comparison, the European Central Bank, Bank of England, and others have already slashed rates multiple times this year, making the Fed look increasingly isolated. Analysts warn that the Fed’s delayed pivot could exacerbate recession risks, placing further stress on Bitcoin’s price action.
Institutional Flows Return to Bitcoin
Despite near-term price weakness, institutional capital appears to be flowing back into Bitcoin. Data shows BTC-denominated exchange-traded products (ETPs) attracted $444 million in net inflows last week, while Ether-based products recorded nearly $900 million in outflows.
This “re-rotation” highlights shifting institutional preference back toward Bitcoin, especially as spot ETFs continue to gain traction in the United States. With $250 million in net inflows to U.S. Bitcoin ETFs alone, BTC retains dominance as the preferred crypto for institutional allocation.
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Whales Trigger Worries With Heavy Selling
Onchain data, however, paints a darker picture. Whales—addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC—have offloaded more than 115,000 BTC in the last month, totaling around $12.7 billion. This marks the heaviest sell-off since mid-2022 and signals heightened risk aversion among large investors.
The trend has already pressured BTC below $108,000 and could continue weighing on the market. Analysts caution that further whale distribution could extend short-term downside, echoing past bear market behaviors.
Futures Market Signals Liquidity Stress
Binance’s Bitcoin futures market is also flashing warning signals. The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio, a metric comparing buy volume to sell volume, is forming lower lows while price attempts to expand higher. Historically, this pattern has preceded major corrections in bull cycles.
Liquidity has also weakened, raising concerns about market resilience. Analysts argue that if liquidity fails to recover despite catalysts like ETFs and institutional inflows, the bull market’s momentum could falter sharply.
Global Market Context Adds Uncertainty
Beyond crypto-specific factors, the global macro backdrop adds further uncertainty. Construction spending declines in the U.S. hint at recessionary pressures, while equities and gold have outperformed Bitcoin in recent weeks. For risk assets like BTC, the interplay between Fed policy, recession fears, and global monetary easing remains decisive.
Still, zooming out shows Bitcoin remains structurally strong. Despite recent volatility, BTC has corrected only 13% from its all-time high—far less than historical retracements. Analysts suggest that while whales may cap short-term momentum, institutional accumulation continues to underpin the long-term bullish case.
September Crucial for BTC
Bitcoin is once again caught between short-term bearish signals and long-term structural strength. With whales selling heavily, macro volatility rising, and liquidity metrics under pressure, the risk of a dip toward $90,000 cannot be dismissed.
Yet institutional inflows and ETF-driven demand provide a counterbalance that could steady BTC after volatility passes. Traders will closely watch $106,700 as immediate support and $100,000 as the ultimate line in the sand. September could determine whether Bitcoin consolidates for another leg higher—or endures its most serious correction since 2022.
