The Crypto Market’s Anticipation for Trump’s Upcoming Moves
As Bitcoin holds steady above $87k, the cryptocurrency sector seems to be trading with a hint of optimism mixed with caution. The same sentiment is shared by Asian traders, waiting for the American data release, as well as President Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement set for April 2nd, dubbed as “Liberation Day.” Overall, major cryptocurrencies, along with the rest of the market, seem to be in a limbo with very little movement, providing a stagnant, almost standstill feeling.
While cryptocurrency memecoins stagnated, Dogecoin and Shiba Inu took the initiative.
As most important cryptocurrencies stayed stagnant for the most part, memecoins took off, gaining a significant amount of attention. Dogecoin (DOGE) is one of the memecoins that busted through the 5.5% threshold recently. DOGE also showed signs of a positive outlook for the second day in a row after gaining a 5.5% bump. In addition to Dogecoin, some other memecoins like Pepe (PEPE), Mog (MOG), and many more continued to march forward, also proving their position as a beta test on Ethereum.
Shiba Inu Surge
Shiba Inu (SHIB) led the way with an impressive 11% increase in value. There has been a rotation towards riskier memecoins, and activity on its native ShibaSwap exchange also increased by 228% over the last 30 days. Further data also showed a sharp increase in open interest for SHIB-tracked futures, which has risen by more than 20% since Sunday. This surge in open interest usually indicates stronger expectations for background price movement volatility.
Market Sentiment and Economic Slowdown Concerns
The suspicion of an impending economic slowdown in the US continues to add downward pressure on the market sentiment. The recent unwinding of momentum trades in equities has seen other money managers also adopt a more passive approach to equities, adding to the bearish outlook.
The Tariff Wildcard: A Potential Game-Changer
As relayed by President Trump, the cryptocurrency market would be significantly impacted by his upcoming tariff proposals. According to the head of insights for SignalPlus, ‘We expect markets to continue their soft rebound from last week into month-end, with the next major catalyst being the liberation day reciprocative tariff announcement from Trump scheduled for April 2nd. He advanced the thought, believing that claims of a softer tariff counter could recoup some technical damage inflicted on the US equity stocks and spark a rally across global markets, including cryptocurrency.’ The rumors that there will be a non-aggressive response to the tariffs could also help boost U.S. stocks.
Copyright Dependency
This is the most volatile period for cryptocurrencies. Fan noted that crypto price fluctuations closely track equity price changes and commented on it, ‘Crypto will remain a close proxy of equities in the foreseeable future as we don’t see a unique catalyst in the meantime, though the recent M&A announcements with Coinbase/Kraken give us faith that the long-term bull market remains alive.’
Options Traders Remain Cautious: PCE Data Loooms
QCP Capital Traders broadcasted this Tuesday, explaining how this quarter, and especially April, has been good for risk assets in the past. “The S&P 500, for instance, has historically had a median return of 19.6% in Q2. Furthermore, Bitcoin has also recorded its second-best performance during this stretch—only trailing Q4,” they remarked. At the same time, though, many have noted that the options market remains standoffish, with call skew only starting to emerge from June. That is likely waiting until the tariff situation becomes clearer.
The PCE Data: An Example of a Market Catalyzing Two Sides
QCP Capital has marked the “catalyst” for potential movement in the markets as the data release for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). The index PCE is known to follow marks (inflationary or deflationary) on various spending by a consumer on different goods and services over time and is watched carefully by the Fed and it influences the decisions on interest rates. Also, higher PCE indexes consistently mean inflation is on the lookout, which can bring about rate increases, possibly weakening demand and raising the risk appetite, which would be movement adverse for Bitcoin prices. Lower PCE data indicates a stronger possibility of inflation reduction or steady policy and support increase, which Bitcoin’s price may strengthen. As it stands, the potential to move market sentiment for the next PCE release looks like March 28th.
Conclusion: Highly Sensitive Situations Filled With Hope and Challenges Residing Situationally
Currently, just like the rest of the market, cryptocurrencies are in an awaiting period, ready to shift sideways, locked into a standoff between potent price movements, either premium bullish or extreme bearish. In crypto, constantly pushing higher are the memecoins that are triggering rallies and cementing the existence and room left for pure speculation. The remainder of the market, however, appears to be guided mainly by changes in the economy, and the most important ones are the forthcoming tariff announcement alongside the PCE data. In essence, these traders and investors are hoping for changes to soothe the uncertainty stirred through these situations and are looking out for these events to set the view of the market moving forward.
The next few days will be essential to understanding whether the recent calm in the market will persist or whether volatility will take over.
