Bitcoin Eyes $90K: Bears and Bulls Locked in Battle
Bitcoin (BTC) has made another strong attempt at surpassing the resistance level of $88,000. The cryptocurrency market is reviving and is lifted by seasonality optimism as the market moves from March towards the historically strong second quarter. However, uncertainties in the macroeconomics create complexities for Bitcoin.
A Tailwind Bitcoin Seasonality: Bullish
Miles Deutscher’s analysis of historical price data shows a strong seasonal trend for Bitcoin. The analysis additionally suggests a 75% probability of upside for bitcoin throughout the year and April is deemed pivotal. This bullish seasonality is supported by QCP Capital, as they emphasized April as the most potent for cryptocurrency. “The S&P 500 has delivered an average annualized return of 19.6% in Q2, while Bitcoin has also recorded its second-best median performance during this stretch—again, trailing only Q4,” the Singapore-based firm stated, supporting their case”.
Long-Term Holders: A Shift to Holding Strategy
The bullish sentiment appears to be fueled by the 1Y+HODL wave indicator, which measures the percentage of Bitcoin addresses (or wallets) that have held their BTC for at least a year and is now turning upwards. This shift is indicative of the growing market sentiment in favor of the holding strategy and more long-term investors seem to be opting to retain their Bitcoin as opposed to selling. This trend is also confirmed by data source Bitbo Charts.
Regulatory Support: A Win for Crypto
The legal landscape has also provided some support for the entire cryptocurrency sector. There are reports that the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) is working on a new set of procedures designed to eliminate some of the reputational risk attached to its supervision of the banks. Sacks, the White House crypto czar, described this as “a big win for crypto.” “In practice, this vague and subjective criteria was used to justify the debanking of lawful crypto businesses through Operation Chokepoint 2.0.”
Stablecoin Activity: Potential Dry Powder
Social media chatter regarding stablecoins has skyrocketed, with some claiming that a considerable amount, amounting to $31.8 billion on Binance, is essentially unchanged or “dry powder,” ideal and poised to enter the market to boost demand, which would further drive up prices.
BlackRock’s ETF: An Optimistic Outlook
The launch of a physical Bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETP) in Europe by BlackRock with a total expense ratio of 15 bps is a welcome step, particularly because it may shift Bitcoin’s adoption curve. This is important since Bitcoin’s acceptance is generally slower in Europe compared to the US and the fees for ETFs are much higher in Europe than in the US.
Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Risks to Market Enthusiasm
The overall economic factors affect to some degree and may create headwinds for an otherwise enthusiastic market. Recent headlines mention that Trump’s expected reciprocal tariffs on April 2 might be weaker than the initial assumption. But these tariffs remain heavily debated on which of the sectors and countries are the focus of the targeted tariffs.
Economic Indicators: A Volatile Bullish Outlook
These indicators do give some hope while at the same time exhibiting signs of volatility. Weaker-than-expected US consumer confidence in March, along with a USDJPY death cross confirming yen strength as a safe haven currency, adds no encouragement. These suggest heightened risks for markets, which could in turn bolster the case for cryptocurrency’s refuge.
Happenings that Should be Noted Regarding Crypto and Macro Economics
In the following days, we have certain events that will affect the crypto world and the macroeconomic market as a whole:
- Activation of the Hoodi testnet Pectra hard fork network upgrade on Ethereum (March 26).
- Launch of Walrus (WAL) project mainnet (March 27).
- Company Metaplanet (3350) announces a 10-to-1 stock split (April 1).
- The final 4th quarter GDP data will be published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (March 27).
- The Department of Labor will release data regarding unemployment insurance for the US (March 27).
- A hearing of the Senate Banking Commission will take place to attend the questioning of Paul Atkins for the chairperson position of the SEC (March 27).
- Decision on the central bank interest in Mexico (March 27).
- Publication of the unemployment rates from Brazil and Mexico (March 28).
- Analytics Canada will publish the GDP data (March 28).
- The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the consumer’s income and expenditure in February (March 28).
- Enforcement date of reciprocal tariffs proposed by the Trump administration (April 2).
- Other token events such as Sky DAO meetings are expected and votes for governance within DYdX DAO on funding and liquidity will take place. Outlined the purchase of a stake in Thena.fi, which comprises Venus DAO.
Balancer DAO has also been looking into a revenue-sharing balancer alliance program with key partners in the ecosystem. Townhall meetings and AMAs are planned for other projects like Kaia Chain, Conflux Network, PancakeSwap, and even the Cardano Foundation.
Token Unlocks and Listings
There are several tokens that will have important unlocks soon, most notably Optimism (OP), Sui (SUI), ZetaChain (ZETA), Ethena (ENA), Wormhole (W), Kaspa (KAS), and Movement (MOVE). An increase in token supply due to these unlocks will likely affect their prices, some negatively. Moreover, Walrus (WAL) will be newly listed on Gate.io and Bybit, while Binance is set to remove Aergo (AERGO) and some stablecoins from their listings.
Identifying Opportunities Balanced With Caution
Defining the situation of the cryptocurrency market is quite complex. Although there is positive sentiment due to seasonality, increased tendency to HODL, and new regulations, there are external economic uncertainties and risks related to policy changes that pose serious threats. Days and weeks ahead will guide the direction of the market alongside the $90,000 Bitcoin mark—as a critical battle for bulls and bears wrestling over price levels. Holding for observing movements in crypto-specific fundamentals, macro variables, and the evolving landscape will be vital in making decisive moves.
