Dogecoin has had an impressive run in July, surging by a massive 77% and leading the meme coin sector by a significant margin. This marks the largest rally among the top three meme coins, and on-chain metrics are beginning to show renewed signs of activity. The significant price movement has broken Dogecoin out of a multi-month trading range, leading to speculation about its next move.
Network Activity Shows Healthy Growth
Data from Santiment indicates that daily active addresses experienced sharp spikes in May and mid-June, which coincided with local tops and bottoms. However, the current increase in active addresses has been more gradual and sustained. This slower, less dramatic climb, without excessive noise, suggests a more organic growth rather than hype-driven surges. Similarly, the transaction count in July has remained steady, showing no crazy spikes or signs of blow-off tops often associated with speculative bubbles.
What’s even more interesting is the rising 365-day circulation, which could imply that long-term holders are taking profits while new participants are entering the market. This shift suggests that Dogecoin might genuinely be gearing up for further upside rather than just experiencing fleeting hype.
Breaking Out of a Long-Term Range
Since March, DOGE had been confined within a trading range of approximately $0.142 to $0.25. However, this changed significantly on July 20. Trading volume has been consistently above average for nearly two weeks, which ultimately propelled Dogecoin through the formidable $0.25 resistance barrier. Now that the price has broken above the upper boundary of this range, technical analysis suggests we could see it reach at least $0.33. As of now, DOGE is hovering around the $0.285 level, testing a resistance point that dates back to February. This breakout is a crucial development for Dogecoin, signaling a potential shift in its price trajectory.
What to Watch for in August
Looking ahead, the $0.40 mark could present a significant challenge. This level acted as a major ceiling between November 2024 and January 2025. Therefore, if DOGE reaches this point again, it might require several attempts to break through. Despite this potential resistance, the overall outlook remains strong. The immediate price target for the next few weeks, based on the range breakout, is around $0.357. In the short term, if there’s a dip back to the $0.25–$0.26 zone, it could offer an attractive entry point for swing traders looking to capitalize on the next upward movement. This potential pullback could provide a solid opportunity for those who missed the initial surge.
