A Period of Consolidation
Since the beginning of 2024, the price of Solana (SOL) has been locked in a horizontal trading range between $125 and $180. The cryptocurrency has shown signs of consolidation, with neither a clear long-term breakout nor a decisive breakdown. The price has repeatedly moved above and below these key levels, but it has always returned to the confines of this range, leading to a period of uncertainty for traders and investors.
Failed Breakout and Bearish Candlestick
The most recent attempt to break out of this range occurred in July, when SOL pushed above a descending resistance trend line. However, this breakout was short-lived. The price was decisively rejected at the $185 level, forming a bearish engulfing candlestick last week. This rejection has signaled significant downside pressure. Following this bearish candlestick, the price is now at a weekly low and has failed to bounce, which is seen as a sign of weakness.
A Potential Retest of Range Lows
This bearish momentum could very well lead to a retest of the range’s lower boundary at $125. A look at the momentum indicators on the weekly chart does not provide a clear direction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting at 50, and the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is at 0. Both of these readings are neutral, indicating that the long-term trend for the rest of 2025 is not yet confirmed as either bullish or bearish.
Bearish Indicators on the Daily Chart
Moving to the daily time frame, the signals are more bearish. The wave count suggests an A-B-C correction is in play, likely a running variety. This scenario implies that the price of SOL is currently in the final stages of wave C, which could find support at the channel’s support trend line. Supporting this wave count, the momentum indicators on the daily chart are also pointing to a bearish outcome. The RSI is below 50, and the MACD is in negative territory.
Short-Term Outlook
Based on the daily analysis, the price prediction for Solana for this week is bearish. The wave count and indicator readings point toward a potential target price of $145. This downward pressure is a direct result of the failed July breakout and the formation of a bearish candlestick. The market’s inability to sustain the recent upward momentum has created a strong likelihood of a decline in the short term. Traders will be watching to see if the price can hold these levels or if it will continue its slide toward the range low.
Read More: Solana Price Correction: Bulls Target $205
