Crypto Market Analysis: July 1, 2025 – Cautious Start to Q3
On July 1, 2025, the cryptocurrency market experienced a largely lower trend, marking a cautious start to the third quarter. The global crypto market capitalization fell by 1.12% to $3.3 trillion. Bitcoin hovered just under $107,000, while altcoin performance was mixed. This period of adjustment follows recent consolidation and is influenced by ongoing macroeconomic factors, particularly the upcoming July 9 US tariff decision. Despite short-term fluctuations, underlying institutional demand and evolving regulatory clarity continue to shape the market’s long-term outlook.
Macroeconomic factors continue to influence sentiment: a softer US CPI report fuels hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, initially caused retreats. Regulatory developments are significant: the US Senate passed the GENIUS Act for stablecoins on June 16, moving it to the House. The SEC is reviewing proposals for in-kind redemptions in crypto ETFs. Institutional capital inflows into crypto ETPs totaled $17.8 billion in H1 2025, with Bitcoin ETPs dominating 84%. Germany’s Sparkassen group plans to launch crypto trading for retail investors by mid-2026.
Bitcoin (BTC): Navigating Tariff Uncertainty
Bitcoin, the market leader, is consolidating near its all-time highs, trading around $105,417.43 on July 1, 2025, reflecting a 2.20% decrease in 24 hours. It is holding steady around $107,000 as traders weigh the upcoming July 9 US tariff decision. Liquidity is building around the $107,500 short positions, which could act as a key inflection point.
Analysts suggest a rally to fresh all-time highs is “inevitable,” with AI models predicting BTC around $111,500 – $114,000 by July 1. A sustained breakout above $110,000-$112,000 could lead to targets of $125,000. Optimistic forecasts project $130,000–$150,000 by year-end 2025. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $3.2 billion in inflows over the past two weeks without a single outflow day. American Bitcoin Corp., backed by Donald Trump’s sons, raised $215 million to acquire more BTC.
Ethereum (ETH): Testing Support Levels
Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, is trading around $2,417.47 on July 1, 2025, showing a 3.41% decrease. It is hovering near its 21-day SMA but a drop below the 51-day SMA at $2,466 could indicate further consolidation.
Despite this, Ethereum’s long-term prospects remain bullish, driven by growing interest in DeFi and NFTs. The successful Pectra upgrade in May 2025 continues to lay a robust foundation. Analysts predict ETH could rally to $2,600–$2,650 by end of June (already passed), with a potential breakout beyond $2,800 in July. Some experts foresee a rally towards $4,000+ by late 2025, potentially retesting its all-time high near $4,900. Bitget projects $5,672 by end of summer 2025.
Solana (SOL): Mixed Signals Amidst Bearish Momentum
Solana is trading around $149.467 on July 1, 2025, showing a 1.73% increase. However, it dropped over 5% in the last 24 hours to trade at $146.55. While bearish momentum is still present, a breakout above $147 could trigger a rally towards $165–$175. Some analysts suggest a potential jump to $200 if buying pressure intensifies.
Solana’s fundamental strength is supported by increasing TVL in its DeFi protocols. Fidelity, Invesco, and Galaxy Digital formally submitted S-1 registrations for spot Solana ETFs on June 14, 2025, with Bloomberg analysts giving 90% approval odds. DeFi Development announced plans to raise $100M to buy more Solana. Year-end 2025 predictions range from $175 to $212.
XRP: Breakout Potential Builds
XRP is trading at $2.19 on July 1, 2025, showing a 0.26% increase. It has rebounded after testing support at $2.00, now sitting near the $2.20–$2.30 resistance zone. Whale wallets and network activity are surging, with daily active addresses past 295,000.
The resolution of the SEC lawsuit, with Ripple dropping its cross-appeal and agreeing to a reduced fine, has cleared a major hurdle. Analysts predict XRP could reach $2.25–$2.30 in the short term, with Q3 2025 targets of $3.00–$3.40 and year-end projections potentially exceeding $5.00. PBK Miner, an XRP mining project, officially launched, redefining AI cloud mining.
Cardano (ADA): Sideways Trading with ETF Hopes
Cardano is navigating a critical phase, trading around $0.5653 (June 29 snapshot). It has been trading sideways in a narrow range of $0.55-$0.60. The likelihood of a Cardano ETF approval by 2025 has surged to 90%, potentially attracting billions in new capital and pushing ADA towards targets of $1.30, $1.80, and even $2.60.
Dogecoin (DOGE): Recovery After Selloff
Dogecoin (DOGE) was trading around $0.1629 (June 29 snapshot). It experienced a sharp recovery after a weekend selloff, with surging trading volume indicating renewed buyer interest. Price predictions for 2025 range from $0.30 to $1.00, largely influenced by social media trends and the potential for spot Dogecoin ETFs.
Shiba Inu (SHIB): Bullish Reversal Potential
Shiba Inu (SHIB) was trading around $0.0000115 (June 29 snapshot). Despite a recent 4% plunge, SHIB has maintained its value above $0.00001250, suggesting a possibility of a bullish reversal. Some optimistic forecasts suggest SHIB could retest $0.000015 and potentially push to $0.000020 this month, and even a new all-time high if Bitcoin hits $1 million.
SUI: Volatility and Fundamental Growth
SUI is experiencing notable price volatility, trading around $2.80 (June 30 snapshot). It maintains robust fundamental growth with rising Total Value Locked (TVL) and ongoing ETF discussions. The Nasdaq filing for a 21Shares SUI ETF is a bullish catalyst (60% approval chance in 2025).
Pi Network (PI): Community-Driven, Awaiting Milestones
Pi Network remains a community-driven project facing challenges. On June 30, 2025, PI was trading around $0.531287. The announcement of a $100 million investment fund instead of a full Mainnet launch at Consensus 2025 led to disappointment. Analysts suggest that without greater transparency and major exchange listings, bearish momentum may persist. A recovery towards $1.00–$1.20 is possible if sentiment improves.
Kaspa (KAS): Technical Leaps, Price Debate
Kaspa is undergoing a period of price debate despite significant technical advancements. On June 30, 2025, KAS was trading around $0.07919. The highly anticipated Crescendo V1 hardfork went live on May 5, 2025, boosting the network’s speed tenfold to 10 BPS. Despite these technical leaps, KAS has experienced a notable decline from its 2024 all-time high, sparking debate about its potential to reach $1 by year-end. Some analysts predict KAS could settle between $0.35 and $0.45 by the end of 2025, or even $0.50 and $0.70.
| Cryptocurrency | Price (Approx. July 1, 2025) | 24-Hour Price Change (Approx.) | Year-End 2025 Price Prediction (Approx.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | ~$105,417.43 | -2.20% | $130,000 – $150,000 |
| Ethereum (ETH) | ~$2,417.47 | -3.41% | $4,000+ – $4,900 |
| Solana (SOL) | ~$149.467 | +1.73% | $175 – $212 |
| XRP | ~$2.19 | +0.26% | $5.00+ |
| Cardano (ADA) | ~$0.5653 | +0.78% (June 29) | $1.30 – $2.60 |
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | ~$0.1629 | +0.72% (June 29) | $0.30 – $1.00 |
| Shiba Inu (SHIB) | ~$0.0000115 | +1.42% (June 29) | $0.000015 – $0.000020 |
| SUI | ~$2.80 | Mixed (June 30) | Robust fundamental growth; ongoing ETF discussions |
| Pi Network (PI) | ~$0.531287 | -4.77% (June 29) | $1.00 – $1.20 |
| Kaspa (KAS) | ~$0.07919 | +0.03% (June 25) | $0.35 – $0.70 |
The Road Ahead: Navigating the Crypto Landscape
July 2025 begins with the crypto market in a state of cautious consolidation, following a dynamic Q2. Bitcoin’s stability near all-time highs, anchored by sustained institutional inflows, continues to lead. Ethereum’s post-Pectra developments and ETF prospects position it for further growth. For altcoins, regulatory clarity, technical innovation, and community engagement remain crucial. Increased scrutiny from global watchdogs and progressing stablecoin legislation highlight a maturing market integrating with traditional finance. While volatility persists, the long-term outlook remains tied to fundamental utility, institutional adoption, and successful navigation of regulatory frameworks.
