China has achieved remarkable success in improving its air quality in eastern regions since declaring a “war on pollution” in 2013, with average PM2.5 levels dropping faster than in any other country. However, this triumph is now overshadowed by a new challenge: a westward shift in heavy industries, which is fueling new pollution hotspots across central, western, and southern China. This industrial migration, driven by the search for abundant energy resources, is testing the limits of the country’s green transition and demanding new policy approaches.
The Westward Industrial Shift and Rising Pollution
While eastern China has seen overall air quality improvement, the first quarter of 2025 witnessed a concerning rise in pollution in provinces to the south and west. PM2.5 levels in Guangxi, Yunnan, and Xinjiang substantially increased by 32%, 14%, and 8%, respectively, compared to a year earlier. Xinjiang, with a yearly average of 70 micrograms per cubic metre (µg/m³), now faces the worst airborne particulate problem, double the national standard and 14 times the WHO guideline. Analysis from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) indicates that these increases are primarily due to anthropogenic emissions rather than meteorological conditions.
This shift is largely a consequence of energy-intensive industries, such as steelmaking and coal-to-chemical processing, relocating from the more developed eastern regions to the south and west. These western and southern provinces offer more abundant and cheaper electricity due to favourable conditions for diverse renewable energy generation. Given that energy often accounts for over 10% of costs in these industries, the incentive for westward relocation is clear.
Drivers of Western Pollution: Industry and Traditional Practices
Several factors are contributing to the upturn in air pollution across western and southern China. Firstly, there’s increased output from energy-intensive industries like steel, non-ferrous metals, and conventional coal-to-chemical processing. In the first quarter of 2025, western China’s output of crude steel, pig iron, and 10 non-ferrous metals increased year-on-year by 6%, 11%, and 4%, respectively, contrasting with declines in the east. Notably, pig iron output growth in western China is nearly double that of crude steel, reflecting the prevalence of the “long-process” steelmaking method, which is highly polluting.
Secondly, traditional practices such as firework displays during national festivals and the burning of crop stubble in springtime to clear fields are exacerbating air quality issues. In Guangxi, for instance, PM2.5 levels in Q1 2025 were their highest in at least three years, partly due to intense firework use coinciding with stagnant weather conditions during the Spring Festival. New “restricted burning” policies for crop stubble, replacing blanket bans, have also introduced seasonal pollution challenges.
Challenges and the Path Forward
Despite the expansion of renewable energy capacity in western provinces like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, coal power is also growing at a faster rate than clean energy in these regions. This means the overall energy transition is not yet sufficient to offset the additional pollution from expanded industrial production. Furthermore, current grid planning in western China focuses on large-scale outbound transmission rather than optimising local absorption of clean energy, adding stress as more energy-intensive industries cluster there.
To address this evolving pollution landscape, China’s central government aims to lower the average annual PM2.5 level to less than 25 µg/m³ by 2035. Achieving this ambitious target necessitates a comprehensive approach that includes:
- Coordinated Regional Planning: Addressing the spatial distribution of energy-intensive industries and ensuring coordinated regional planning for industrial development and air-pollution control, particularly in areas not previously designated as critical for pollution prevention.
- Technological Transformation: Promoting the adoption of low-carbon technologies, such as the electric arc furnace “short-process” method for steelmaking, and advancing industrial electrification to reduce reliance on coal.
- Accelerated Clean Energy Transition: Continuing to expand clean-energy generation and better integrating renewable power into the grid, ensuring that the growth of heavy industry is matched by sufficient clean energy supply.
- Cross-Regional Collaboration: Supporting eastern regions to help restructure green-industrial chains in central and western China by exporting capital, technology, and governance capabilities.
The westward shift in China’s industrial footprint underscores that inter-regional competition for economic success must no longer come at the expense of environmental health. A true green transition, emphasising environmental improvement alongside economic growth, is now the strategic crux for realising sustainable development across the entire country.
