Like every holiday synchronous with the calendar dates, Sunday Bakeries observe Quadriton. This yearly event is observed in the last week of March, declining dollar sales per unit volume in comparison to the previous year.
Increase in Sales: De-escalation of Observing Easter Sunday
As estimated and placed by 210 Analytics, total sales mark an observed decrease to 1.6 billion dollars for the month of March. Numbers suggest estimates placed inform a year-on-year total sales mismatch of $1.6 billion during the 4-week period, and the rest of the math along with Bakiendra’s sales estimates exclaims that actual sales again боль прего លានី pay century.
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Overall Bakery Market: Negative Trends
The cumulative impact of these phenomena brought about an accumulated contraction in the July bakery market. The revenue for the entire bakery sector declined by 3.8 percent, reaching $3.6 billion, and there was a corresponding triple—3.8%—drop in unit volume relative to the previous year within the same timeframe. This was after experiencing prior persistent declines in January and February, where there was a 0.8% decline in dollars and 1.7% and 1.5% in units, respectively.
The Easter Effect: A Timing-Driven Anomaly
The marked monthly decline in sales can primarily be attributed to the stark juxtaposition in the dates of Easter Sunday celebrations in 2024 and 2025. March 31st marks the celebration of Easter Sunday in the year 2024, whereas in 2025 it is the 20th of April. The difference in the date of the holiday has distorted the mechanism of year-over-year sales comparisons because a considerable chunk of bakery goods purchased in the expectation of Easter festivities for the year 2024 occurred in March, while in 2025 these purchases will be captured within April’s sales data.
President of 210 Analytics Anne-Marie Roerink gave insight on the effects of this timing difference: “The much later timing of Easter in 2025 versus 2024 wreaked havoc on bakery sales in March. Both dollars and units decreased 3.8%, which is far greater than the rest of sales being mostly stagnant throughout the year.”
Looking ahead: anticipating the growth rebound in April.
Roerink presented a more upbeat forecast for April, suggesting an increase in sales due to “additional volume from Easter.” She strongly argued that focus should rather be on long-term trends instead of the timing-focused volatility seen in March.
Segment Performance: Donuts and croissants do well.
While the overall market is down, some areas within Perimeter Bakery performed well in March. Sales for donuts grew 8.3 percent to $148 million, with unit volume also growing 3.8 percent. Croissants also did well, with sales growing 11 percent to $80 million and units growing 8.3 percent.
Miscellaneous Bakery Goods: Large Decrements
March proved to be a difficult month for other perimeter bakery segments. Specialty desserts was the most contentious as revenue sales plunged 32.4% to $7.1 million. Pies went through their own difficulties as revenue also went down 20.5% to $66 million. Specialty desserts also registered massive losses in sales volume as it went down 16.6%, while pies went down 11.6%, which is also comparatively large on a relative basis.
Center-Store Bakery: Uniform Effect
Desserts and sweet goods also aligned with the market. Easter’s timing shift caused decreased sales around the holiday. The segment that lost the most was the desserts/sweet goods segment, with unit sales decreasing by 6.3% and revenue decreasing by 5.8%, which resulted in $284 million. Total sales also decreased by 4%, bringing revenue to $221 million. Larger segments such as the bread and buns/rolls category had a less significant drop in unit sales of 3.9% and revenue of 4.2%, which resulted in $1.5 billion.
Roerink noted the timing mismatch impacted all three segments of center-store bakery: “This includes bread and rolls, desserts, and morning bakery.” “All experienced declines in dollars and units that were far greater than those seen in the latest 52-week view.” Meaning, “April sales will certainly be elevated due to the Easter boost and will be measured against an everyday week in 2024.”
Pricing Trends: Stabilization After Increases
Regardless of the sales shifts, total bakery pricing remained relatively unchanged in March. The total average price per unit stood at $3.83, unchanged from the rate a year ago, slightly down from February, but still up 15.6% relative to three years ago.
A Complex Picture With a Bright Future
The sales data for the bakery in March is quite complex, largely due to the Easter holiday. Most markets contracted, albeit some sections were able to more than withstand the downturn, with even expansion noted. There’s a more positive stance for the bakery industry, as the expected upturn in April coupled with stable pricing suggests that the March headwinds are largely an industry-wide issue and temporary in nature.
