Snapshot: Price, Liquidations, and Market Mood
Ethereum traded near $4,460 on Friday, down roughly 3% on the day as traders weighed a firmer timeline for the next major network upgrade, Fusaka. Derivatives positioning turned choppy: in the past 24 hours, Ethereum saw $89.8M in futures liquidations—$83.5M from longs and $6.3M from shorts—underscoring the tug-of-war near resistance.
Spot volumes softened into the selloff while funding normalized, suggesting less froth even as volatility persists. Technically, ETH is testing short-term moving averages and trendlines that could dictate direction into month-end. Macro-wise, easing-rate narratives remain supportive, but near-term flows still dominate the tape.
Dev Call Sets Fusaka’s Tentative Mainnet Date
On ACDC call #165, core contributors aligned around a tentative December 3 mainnet target for Fusaka, contingent on clean testnet dress rehearsals. The schedule slots Holesky (Oct 1), Sepolia (Oct 14), and Hoodi (Oct 28) ahead of mainnet activation.
As always with Ethereum roadmaps, “tentative” is key: devs flagged that timelines could flex if client bugs or edge cases surface. Still, converging on a calendar anchor gives builders, infra teams, and dapp developers a clearer window to prepare. Markets typically price these milestones in waves—during testnets, then near mainnet—so expect narrative cycles into November.
What Fusaka Changes Under the Hood
Fusaka bundles 12 EIPs aimed at better data verification, storage optimization, higher block gas limits, and smarter contract execution pathways. The overarching goal: more throughput with predictable fees and safer execution, especially for apps leaning on complex state.
Crucially, the upgrade lays groundwork for blobspace expansion—temporary data packets used by rollups—that lowers L2 costs and boosts capacity. In plain English: the network becomes more accommodating to high-activity rollups without forcing Layer 1 to bloat. For users, that typically translates to snappier, cheaper L2 UX with L1 security.
Recommended Article: Ethereum Price Forecast: Validator Queue Debate and Market Outlook
Blobspace Expansion: From 6/9 to 14/21 in Two Weeks
Per researcher Christine Kim, blob capacity is slated to scale in two post-Fusaka steps: targets moving from 6/9 to 10/15 blobs per block in week one, then 14/21 in week two. The phased ramp allows clients and infra providers to monitor network health and fee dynamics as capacity increases.
More blobs = more space for rollup data, which can compress transaction costs and reduce congestion spillover. If the cadence holds, L2s could see a meaningful cost relief into mid-December, often a catalyst for user activity and on-chain volumes. Expect L2 ecosystems to trumpet fee benchmarks as the ramps go live.
Caution Flags: Testnet Risks and Validator Frictions
Developers stress that testnet success isn’t guaranteed; Kim framed the odds as roughly 50/50 given open client issues under investigation. Any hiccups could nudge dates, shift parameters, or require hotfixes between waves. Meanwhile, unstaking friction remains topical: the validator exit queue pushed the wait time to ~43 days, prompting debates about capital efficiency.
Vitalik Buterin defended the queue’s design as necessary for network stability, but traders will watch whether queue dynamics cool post-Fusaka. Bottom line: execution risk is real, yet Ethereum’s culture typically prioritizes safety over speed.
Technical Setup: Cup-and-Handle or Deeper Pullback?
On the daily, ETH rejected near $4,620 and is retesting the 20-day SMA; a deeper dip eyes the 50-day SMA (~$4,300). A bounce from these supports—followed by a decisive close above the descending trendline from Aug 24—would validate a cup-and-handle, projecting toward ~$5,300 (measured move). Momentum gauges are mixed: RSI and Stoch are slipping toward neutral, signaling waning bullish impulse but not outright breakdown. Invalidation sits on a daily close below $4,200, exposing the $4,000 psychological shelf. Until then, pullbacks look like tests within a broader uptrend.
How Traders Can Frame the Next Few Weeks
Into October, the testnet gauntlet becomes the calendar driver; clean activations could bid the upgrade trade. L2 fee prints and dev adoption metrics offer a high-frequency read on blob benefits—watch rollup dashboards for cost and throughput.
On price, $4,700–$4,900 remains the battleground: acceptance above opens the door to a $5K+ run, while repeated rejections favor range-trading with tight risk. For builders and funds, Fusaka’s densest impact is structural—capacity, cost predictability, and cleaner execution—foundations that often precede the next leg of on-chain growth.
