Fed day sets the stage as liquidity and guidance drive risk appetite
Ethereum softened into the decision window, slipping roughly 3% as traders de‑risked. With futures markets assigning near‑certain odds to a 25‑basis‑point cut, the surprise factor sits in Powell’s guidance. A dovish tone on the pace of easing could revive appetite for duration and growth. Conversely, a cautious stance risks extending consolidation across high‑beta crypto assets.
Spot flows, volumes, and breadth frame the immediate reaction path
ETH turnover rose about 10% into the event as participants repositioned around key levels. Increased activity often precedes larger candles when liquidity thins, especially around macro catalysts. A strong topside print needs rising volume and positive breadth across majors. Without those confirmations, initial spikes risk mean‑reverting quickly as algos fade momentum.
Technical picture: range intact with clear invalidation lines
On the daily chart, $3,800 continues to attract bids after multiple successful retests. Overhead, the $4,150–$4,200 supply band capped rallies through October and remains the pivot. Above that area, trapped shorts could fuel follow‑through toward $4,600 and $4,800. Losing $3,800, however, exposes $3,600 and the round‑number magnet near $3,400.
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Moving averages and momentum guide conviction on any breakout
Short‑term EMAs cluster around $3,900, reflecting indecision but also a coiled structure. The 200‑day EMA remains well below spot, preserving a constructive long‑term slope. RSI has hovered near neutral, leaving room to expand in either direction. A daily close above $4,200 with rising volume would finally confirm range resolution in favor of bulls.
Macro overlay: tariffs noise versus policy signal for risk assets
Recent tariff headlines injected uncertainty but have not altered liquidity expectations meaningfully. Rate cuts historically ease financial conditions with a lag, benefiting duration and growth exposures. If forward guidance implies additional easing into year‑end, risk proxies tend to anticipate improved liquidity. That backdrop would help ETH attempt new all‑time highs over the coming weeks.
Path to $6,000 requires catalysts, structure, and disciplined follow‑through
To advance decisively, ETH must reclaim $4,200, convert it to support, and print higher highs above $4,600. That sequence should align with expanding OBV, positive funding normalization, and improving L2 activity. Sustained ETF inflows and treasury allocations would add a durable demand layer beneath price. Absent those drivers, the market likely churns within the existing range.
Strategy for different playbooks into and after the decision
Breakout traders can wait for a confirmed daily close above $4,200 before adding risk. Swing participants may scale entries on dips toward $3,800 with tight invalidations below $3,700. Options traders might favor call spreads to define risk into a potential trend extension. A measured approach respects event risk while preserving upside if liquidity turns supportive.
Bottom line: watch $3,800 support and $4,200 resistance for the verdict
ETH’s near‑term trajectory hinges on policy tone, liquidity signals, and the market’s breadth response. A dovish cut that lifts flows could propel a measured grind toward $4,800 and set sights on $6,000. A hawkish surprise likely prolongs consolidation and retests the $3,600–$3,800 base. Let price confirm before chasing, and allow the macro to do the heavy lifting.
