According to reports, U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to power has begun shifting global geopolitics for a second time. However, his impact is said to be not always manifesting in ways that benefit his ideological supporters. As noted by the New York Times, during the last populational and regional elections in Canada, Australia, Germany, Singapore, and the United Kingdom, Trump’s unapologetic policies have increasingly evolved and sometimes presented a contentious backdrop for both voters and political leaders.
Canada and Australia: Rise of Centrists
Center-left incumbent parties in Canada and Australia emerged victorious in elections that were previously considered unattainable. A growing backlash against conservative leaders labeled as staunch Trump populists unified these contests.
In Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney focused on Trump’s threats to Canada, while in Australia, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was outperformed by his opponent, Peter Dutton. Dutton’s closeness to Trump-style austerity became voter kryptonite, and he too lost his seat in Parliament. The Australian result was described as a “blowout,” with Charles Edel of the Center for Strategic and International Studies describing it as a “blowout,” indicating that Trump’s intensifying trade battles contributed to the waning conservative strength in both countries.
Singapore: Stability Amidst Uncertainty
Singaporeans view elections as less competitive, leading the ruling People’s Action Party Australia to exploit the disruption caused by Trump’s tariffs. Prime Minister Wong argued that Trump’s trade agenda negatively impacts Singapore’s export-led economy, leading to voter panic and a ‘flight to safety’ narrative. This sentiment helped the party retain another decisive victory. Cherian George, an author and Singaporean politics expert, believes that the Trump factor is present, as widespread concern over Trump’s trade wars is pushing a significant number of voters towards strong support for the ruling party.
Germany: Post-Vote Political Cover
In Germany, the Trump factor has reportedly played out in less overt ways. Friedrich Merz, who within the week assumes the chancellor’s office, is not reported to have enjoyed any tangible electoral gains from the Trump presidency.
Trump’s aggressive approach to NATO and European allies, as Merz reported, gave him the political cover he needed to enact controversial domestic reforms. These reforms included lifting the cap on spending, which, in austerity-driven Germany, would have been nearly impossible to pass. Trump’s presence, as it is reported, also did not significantly bolster support for Germany’s far-right AfD party, even though they received support from MAGA personalities like Elon Musk. The party, as it is said, gained very little from its association with Trumpism, and, as it is said, still remains politically isolated within German politics.
United Kingdom: Erratic Consequence
The influence of Trump in Britain has been ambiguous, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer focusing on diplomatic efforts and avoiding public criticism. However, his efforts to convert diplomatic achievements into trade relief did not yield results. As American levies on British goods remained stagnant, anxiety in Britain increased.
During the regional elections, Starmer’s Labour lost 187 council seats and 1 parliamentary by-election. Meanwhile, Farage’s Reform UK party, based on Trump populism, experienced rapid growth, gaining control of local councils and turning over two mayoralties. Despite toxic views, the anti-establishment trend seems to gain support.
In need of change? A Global Referendum?
It still appears too early to make a definitive claim about the existence of an anti-Trump movement; however, Trump seemed to have influence in a number of countries considering the different election outcomes. In some instances, leading with his strategies seems to be undermining the political standing of a few leaders.
In some instances, his policies are said to be changing national strategies and renewing discussions on security, sovereignty, and economic resilience. Charles Edel was quoted as stating, “There were enough similarities [between Canada and Australia] to suggest that the conservatives’ fortunes fell as Trump’s tariffs and attacks on America’s allies ramped up.” This source concludes that though the Trump factor might not explicitly be on the ballot globally, it certainly exists in voters’ minds and is reportedly influencing political outcomes one election at a time.
