XRP Struggles After Steep August Losses
XRP ended August under pressure after falling more than 22% from its recent peak of $3.66. The drop placed the cryptocurrency just above a key support zone around $2.80, sparking speculation about whether September will bring further declines.
Traders are now closely monitoring the charts to see if XRP can hold above this critical level. Failure to do so may open the door to a deeper correction that could test long-term support zones.
$2.80 Emerges as Make-or-Break Support
Onchain data from Glassnode shows that $2.80 is a pivotal cost basis level for XRP. Nearly 1.71 billion tokens were acquired in this range, making it a crucial psychological and technical threshold.
If prices fall below $2.80, profit-taking could accelerate as many holders risk losing their gains. Analysts warn that a breakdown at this level could trigger a significant sell-off, potentially sending XRP toward lower Fibonacci retracement levels.
Technical Signals Point to Bearish Risks
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator on the weekly chart is flashing early warning signs. A bearish crossover, where the faster blue line dips below the slower orange line, is on track for September.
In past XRP cycles, similar MACD signals have marked the start of sharp retracements. Each time, the asset tested major moving averages within weeks, making the setup worth watching closely.
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Historical Patterns Suggest a 25% Pullback
XRP has a history of reacting strongly to MACD crossovers. Similar signals in May 2021, September 2021, and March 2025 preceded declines of 50% or more. Analysts fear history could repeat if momentum continues to weaken.
A 25% decline would bring XRP to around $2.17, near the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA). This level aligns with past support areas, making it the first major downside target if bearish trends take hold.
Fibonacci Levels Map the Downside Path
Beyond the 50-week EMA, Fibonacci retracement levels highlight additional risks. A drop to the 0.5 Fib line around $1.73 would echo previous market corrections and confirm deeper weakness.
Worse still, a decisive break below $1.73 could extend losses to the 200-week EMA near $1.19. This zone has historically provided long-term support but would represent a full bear market scenario for XRP.
Profit-Taking Could Add Selling Pressure
Despite recent declines, more than 90% of XRP holders remain in profit. While this reflects long-term confidence, it also raises the odds of heavy profit-taking if prices slide further.
Analysts note that $1.19 roughly matches the average acquisition cost for current holders. If prices approach this level, pressure to secure profits could intensify, deepening any bearish correction.
Bulls Aim to Defend Key Averages
For bullish traders, the focus is on defending the 50-week EMA. Since July 2024, XRP has consistently found support at this moving average before resuming its climb. If the pattern holds, the asset could avoid a full breakdown and potentially rebound to new highs.
However, the coming weeks will be decisive. Whether XRP stabilizes above $2.80 or slips into a deeper correction could set the tone for the remainder of 2025.
September Could Define XRP’s Path
XRP enters September at a crossroads. Holding the $2.80 support level may restore bullish confidence, while losing it could spark a 25% slide toward $2.17 and beyond.
With technical indicators flashing caution and historical patterns pointing to downside risks, investors face a pivotal month. Whether XRP rebounds or crashes may depend on the bulls’ ability to defend critical support lines.
