Short-Term Momentum Begins to Fade
Bitcoin has experienced extreme volatility in recent months, surging above $126,000 in October before plunging toward $60,000 and stabilizing near the high-$60,000 range. Despite the dramatic swings, accumulation continues across segments of the market.
However, on-chain data reveals that short-term holder demand is losing momentum. Analytics platform Alphractal reports that the 90-day Short-Term Holder Net Position Change remains positive but is declining sharply.
What Demand Deceleration Signals
A declining net position change means buyers are still accumulating Bitcoin, but at a slower pace than before. Historically, this pattern has preceded periods of consolidation, heightened volatility, or broader trend transitions.
Alphractal founder Joao Wedson emphasized that isolated institutional purchases do not necessarily translate into widespread demand strength. Evaluating overall blockchain flows provides a clearer picture of underlying market health.
Institutional Buying Fails to Spark Retail FOMO
Recent headlines highlighting accumulation by major corporate entities have not triggered renewed retail enthusiasm. Large purchases by companies such as MicroStrategy have failed to reverse cautious short-term sentiment.
This divergence suggests that institutional conviction alone may not be sufficient to sustain momentum. Retail participation often plays a crucial role during breakout phases.
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Whale Accumulation Accelerates
While short-term holders slow their buying pace, whale behavior paints a contrasting picture. Data from CryptoQuant indicates that large holders have accumulated more than 200,000 BTC during the recent consolidation phase.
Whale-held supply increased from roughly 2.9 million BTC to over 3.1 million BTC in recent weeks. This expansion signals confidence among long-term capital allocators.
Exchange Inflows Versus Long-Term Holdings
Although whale inflows to exchanges have risen periodically, which can indicate short-term selling pressure, their broader holdings trend remains upward. Analysts use monthly averages to filter out noise from temporary exchange movements.
This broader accumulation suggests strategic positioning rather than speculative trading. Large investors appear to be absorbing available supply during price weakness.
Lessons From the April 2025 Correction
The last time whale accumulation reached similar magnitude was during the April 2025 market correction. At that time, aggressive buying by large holders helped stabilize price action and contributed to Bitcoin’s subsequent rally from $76,000 to $126,000.
Today’s environment presents parallels, though macro conditions differ. Bitcoin currently trades roughly 46% below its recent all-time high, potentially offering attractive entry points for deep-pocketed investors.
Consolidation Before the Next Leg?
Bitcoin’s current phase may represent a transitional period between cycles. Slowing short-term demand suggests caution, yet whale accumulation indicates conviction beneath the surface.
Whether the market resolves upward or downward may depend on liquidity, macroeconomic stability, and broader investor sentiment. For now, Bitcoin appears caught between cautious short-term traders and confident long-term accumulators positioning for the next structural move.
