Pepe (PEPE) price is exhibiting renewed strength, having surged nearly 57% in the past month. Despite a recent cooling in the broader crypto market, PEPE remains poised near a key technical breakout level. A significant exodus of over 17 trillion PEPE tokens from exchanges since July 16 points to high holder confidence and reduced immediate sell pressure, suggesting potential for further upside even as the meme token remains over 51% below its all-time high.
Heavy Exchange Outflows and Holder Confidence
A consistent week-long pattern of outflows has seen almost 17.9 trillion PEPE tokens leave exchanges since July 16. This kind of movement typically indicates that holders are transferring their tokens to private wallets, a generally bullish sign as it reduces the immediate selling pressure on exchanges. What makes this trend particularly noteworthy is that these token outflows have continued despite PEPE’s price surging over 12% in the same period, suggesting that current holders are prioritising accumulation over selling.
Exchange outflows are a crucial metric in crypto analysis, as they measure the net movement of tokens from trading platforms. When more tokens are leaving than entering, it implies that fewer traders are preparing to sell, which can contribute to price appreciation due to decreased supply on the market.
MVRV Data Hints at Low Sell Risk
Further supporting the bullish outlook for PEPE is its 30-day Market Value to Realised Value (MVRV) ratio. This metric, which compares the price at which tokens were last moved to their current value, has entered positive territory but remains modest at +12.24%. Historically, short-term holders tend to begin significant selling when the MVRV ratio crosses the 20-30% threshold. The current modest positive level suggests that while holders are sitting on light profits, these gains are not yet substantial enough to trigger mass sell-offs.
This MVRV observation aligns with the aggressive exchange outflows. The combination of these two metrics strongly suggests that PEPE’s recent price strength may have significant staying power, indicating that holders anticipate better gains in the future.
PEPE Price Nears Wedge Breakout
From a technical analysis perspective, PEPE is currently trading along the upper boundary of a wedge pattern, a setup often associated with bullish breakouts. The final confirmation of a breakout, however, hinges on PEPE’s ability to close decisively above the $0.00001497 level, which aligns with the 0.382 Fibonacci extension.
A clear move past this key resistance level would serve as an additional layer of validation for a bullish trend. If this trend-based Fibonacci resistance level is breached, the PEPE price could gain momentum and potentially move towards $0.000017 or higher. Conversely, if PEPE fails to maintain its current momentum and drops below $0.00001200, it would likely signal the start of a broader retracement and invalidate the current bullish setup. Investors are closely watching these levels as PEPE navigates this critical juncture, with strong on-chain signals suggesting a potential for significant upward movement.
