Wartime Economics Becomes the Default Setting By early 2026, it is increasingly clear that Russia is no longer operating under temporary wartime economic measures. Instead, the Kremlin has begun treating the war economy as a permanent condition, embedding emergency controls into standard governance and fiscal planning. Rather than preparing for a post-war normalization, policymakers are…
Kremlin Prioritizes Stability Over Growth Russia entered January 2026 facing sustained geopolitical pressure and limited access to Western capital markets. In response, the Kremlin has increasingly prioritized economic stability and state control over pursuing aggressive growth targets. Rather than stimulating private-sector expansion, policymakers are focusing on maintaining employment, financing military commitments, and preventing financial shocks…
Sanctions Shift From Shock to Structural Constraint By January 2026, Western sanctions on Russia have evolved from an acute shock into a structural feature of the economy. Policymakers in Moscow no longer frame restrictions as temporary disruptions but as a long-term condition requiring adaptation rather than reversal. This strategic shift reflects an acceptance that access…
Geopolitical Confrontation Emerges as the Leading Global Risk A newly released Global Risks Report ahead of Davos 2026 places great-power rivalry at the top of the world’s short-term risk hierarchy. Political leaders, business executives, and policy experts surveyed for the report overwhelmingly identified escalating competition between major powers as the most immediate threat to global…
China Reaches Growth Goal Against the Odds China reported economic growth of around 5% in 2025, narrowly meeting Beijing’s official target despite a visible slowdown in the final quarter. The outcome surprised some analysts who had expected weaker performance amid sluggish domestic demand and persistent deflationary pressures. Officials framed the result as evidence of economic…
Growth Holds Up Despite a Softer Finish China’s economy is on track to largely meet its official 2025 growth target, even as momentum slowed toward year-end. A Reuters poll estimates fourth-quarter GDP growth at 4.4%, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter and marking the weakest pace since late 2022. Full-year expansion is projected at…
A Changed Relationship With Washington One year into Donald Trump’s second term, Canada’s relationship with the United States looks markedly different. Long defined by close economic integration and shared security interests, the bilateral partnership has become more volatile and politically charged. Trump’s renewed tariff threats and public remarks describing Canada as a potential “51st state”…
Kremlin Consolidates Authority Amid External Pressure Russia entered 2026 facing sustained external pressure from sanctions, geopolitical isolation, and ongoing military commitments. In response, the Kremlin has moved to further consolidate political authority, framing tighter control as necessary for national stability. President Vladimir Putin has emphasized unity and discipline, portraying internal dissent as a vulnerability exploited…
Growth Takes a Back Seat to Stability China entered 2026 with a noticeably different economic mindset. Rather than pursuing ambitious growth targets, policymakers signaled that stability, predictability, and risk containment now outweigh rapid expansion. Official messaging has emphasized “high-quality growth” over headline GDP figures, reflecting a recalibration after years of volatility. This shift acknowledges mounting…
A Shift Away From Hyper-Globalization Global trade entered 2026 under growing strain as governments rethink decades of economic integration. Once driven by efficiency and cost minimization, trade policy is now increasingly shaped by security, resilience, and political alignment. This shift reflects lessons learned from recent shocks, including pandemics, wars, and geopolitical tensions. Policymakers are prioritizing…
